Although outsiders do not know for sure, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are most probably nowhere near the areas in the northwest where the Taliban have been advancing.

Moreover, despite their regional successes, it is highly unlikely that the Taliban will overrun the army and take control of the government with nuclear weapons. The real concern at this stage, therefore, is about extremists infiltrating the security forces.

Pervez Hoodbhoy, a professor of physics at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad and one of the few open critics of Pakistan’s nuclear programme in the country, says: “There have been very worrisome incidents in which certain elements within the army -- maybe they were retired -- successfully launched suicide attacks upon their colleagues. There have been instances when the secret services of Pakistan were successfully targeted. There is fear within the military establishment that such people do exist!”

Fear nuclear weapons will be moved

Since the Mumbai attacks in November, US experts have been worried about one particular threat to the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, says Jeffrey Lightfoot of the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.

“The scenario that they’ve discussed is that there would be some sort of provocation between India and Pakistan, like the Mumbai crisis or other such events that would force the Pakistanis and the Indians into some sort of mobilisation where the nuclear arms are moved. And then, when they are moved and assembled, they are most vulnerable to attack.”

Although there is no direct connection between the Taliban gaining ground and the nuclear weapons as yet, the perceived weakness of the army and the civilian government of Pakistan is not helping to create confidence in Washington, adds Lightfoot.

“I think the concern over the nuclear weapons is one element of the general level of distrust between the United States and Pakistan that exists over decades. And it just so happens it is the worst of the nightmare scenarios for the US government.”

Conspiracy theories in Pakistan

In Pakistan, on the other hand, Pervez Hoodbhoy says that many argue that the Americans are exaggerating the issue: “There are growing conspiracy theories here that actually the Taliban have been put up by the Americans so that the country is destabilised and, looking at the destabilisation, well, then it becomes logical and necessary for the Americans to come in and seize our nuclear weapons.”

“So, that’s the kind of conspiracy argument that’s quite popular around here. I don’t believe there is any truth in that.” He adds that even the Pakistani government is sceptical of the Americans’ intentions.

“The government of Pakistan has said time and again that the nuclear weapons are safe! Now what more can a government say? The government isn’t going to allow the Americans access to its nuclear sites, where the weapons are stored or where they are manufactured.”

This means, then, that there will be no easy way out, even when Presidents Zardari and Obama meet in Washington on Wednesday. The only option seems to be to build up trust, slowly and gradually.

Author: Thomas Bärthlein
Editor: Anne Thomas